BRENTWOOD, TN – Trailing in fundraising for Tennessee’s Republican primary for the U.S. Senate, and apparently still stinging from two statewide polls showing former federal prosecutor and Congressman Ed Bryant leading the field with at least 34 percent of the vote, 2002 GOP gubernatorial nominee Van Hilleary is using his own internal poll numbers to perpetuate his well-documented effort to ignore realities and try to spin himself into “frontrunner” status.
“First, Van Hilleary claimed to be the most elect-able in the general election, despite the fact that in 2002 he became the first Tennessee Republican to lose statewide, since the landslide victories of 1994,” Bryant spokesman Sonny Scott responded. “Then, Mr. Hilleary said he’d raised more money than Ed Bryant even though FEC documents prove that Ed’s out-raised Mr. Hilleary two quarters in a row and out-raised him by $175,000 in money that can legally be spent in the Republican primary.
“Mr. Hilleary’s now asking Tennesseans to believe that two different statewide polls -- conducted by two different polling firms -- showing Ed Bryant in the lead with 34% of the vote are not only wrong, but that their numbers are completely reversed. And, that’s simply not true.
“If the race to nominate a solid, proven conservative who can turn back Bob Corker’s record of higher taxes and abortion hypocrisy -- then defeat Congressman Ford in the general election -- weren’t so serious it would be easier to ignore Mr. Hilleary’s repeated attempts to ignore reality and try to spin himself into the lead.”
“In fact, outside of Mr. Hilleary’s campaign headquarters, the only place Mr. Hilleary is polling nearly as strongly as he says he is, ironically, is in the Ethridge poll where Mr. Hilleary is the leading choice of 31% of Republican primary voters to run again for governor and finish the job he started in 2002.”
Van Hilleary Reality Check: Electability
Hilleary claims to be the most “elect-able” in the general election (Roll Call 3/21/2005), but in 2002 Hilleary became the first Tennessee Republican to lose a statewide, general election since the landslide victories of 1994, despite the hard work of a lot of great people.
Hilleary cites the need for a “sincere conservative” like himself to win the Republican nomination yet conservatives are lining up behind Ed Bryant, who has earned the endorsement of national conservative groups like the Concerned Women for America and the Madison Project and personal endorsements from conservative leaders in Tennessee such as citizen taxpayer activist Ben Cunningham and Van Hilleary’s own former congressional district director Janice Bowling.
Hilleary claims to have out-raised Bryant, but Bryant has out-raised Hilleary two quarters in a row, according to documents filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
Hilleary claims the total amount he’s raised proves he’s preferred among Republicans, but Bryant raised $174,444 more than Hilleary in money that can be legally spent in the Republican Primary, according to FEC documents. And, Bryant reported $63,661 more cash-on-hand than Hilleary that can be spent in the Republican Primary.
Hilleary claims “most of my donations come from regular folks who can afford to give $100 or $50 or maybe $250” (Murfreesboro Daily News Journal 7/31/05). However, FEC reports reveal that – in reality – less than 4% of Hilleary’s contributions came in amounts smaller than $200. In addition to having an overall lead in fundraising, Bryant has a solid 4-to-1 lead in small dollar contributions from Tennessee conservatives.
Van Hilleary Reality Check: Polling
Hilleary claims to be ahead in the polls, but two different statewide polls show Bryant leading with at least 34% of the vote, which amounts to a double digit lead over his nearest competitor.
On April 8, 2005, the Chattanooga Times Free Press reported that a March 22-24 poll, conducted by Global Strategy Group partner Harrison Hickman for Harold Ford Jr., “shows former U.S. Rep. Ed Bryant leading Republican contenders with 35 percent, followed by former U.S. Rep. Van Hilleary with 26 percent and Mr. [Bob] Corker with 15 percent.”
In July, 2005, a poll, conducted by Tennessee-based Ethridge & Associates on July 11-12, surveyed 500 likely Republican primary voters across Tennessee and has a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. In the survey, Bryant led with 34.2% of the vote, thus enjoying an 18 percentage point lead over his nearest competitor in a 4-way primary. Ethridge & Associates President Steve Ethridge, who in 1994 conducted the first poll showing then 18-year incumbent U.S. Senator Jim Sasser vulnerable to defeat, has served as Bryant’s pollster for more than a decade.
GOP U.S. Senate Primary – 4-way
Ed Bryant 34.2%
Van Hilleary 16.4%
Bob Corker 6.4%
Beth Harwell 2.4%
GOP U.S. Senate Primary – 2-way
Ed Bryant 42.6%
Bob Corker 9.6%
